Demographic Research

BackgroundLifespan inequality arises both from heterogeneity (e.g., in sex or race) and from unavoidable individual stochasticity. By treating a heterogeneous population as a mixture we can (and many have) partition variance in lifespan into a between-group component due to heterogeneity and a within-group component due to chance. Until now, such studies have treated factors singly. It is now possible to analyze multiple factors and their contributions to variance. ObjectiveThis paper is the first to exploit the new analysis for multi-factor studies. Multi-factor data are painfully rare, but a remarkable study by Bergeron-Boucher et al. presented U.S. life tables under all 54 combinations of four factors (sex, marital status, education, race). Our objective is to quantify the contributions of these factors and their interactions to lifespan inequality. MethodsThe population is treated as a mixture of 54 groups, with a mixture distribution either flat or proportional to population size of the different factor combinations. Components of the variance in remaining longevity, for starting ages from 30 to 85 years, are calculated using marginal mixture distributions. ResultsEven accounting for four factors and their interactions, between-group heterogeneity accounts for only 7% (population-weighted mixing) to 10% (flat mixing) of lifespan variance. Education and its interactions make the largest contribution. Contributions of two-way, three-way, and four-way interactions are orders of magnitude smaller. This suggests new ways of displaying, summarizing, and interpreting inequality as measured in multi-factor studies. ContributionMulti-factor studies can now be used to identify sources of variance in longevity and other demographic outcomes.

Demographic shifts are reshaping population age structures worldwide, with implications for infectious disease dynamics. Since contact patterns, susceptibility and infectiousness often vary by age, the risk that pathogen introductions initiate a substantial outbreak depends on the populations age distribution and associated behavioural characteristics. We develop an age-structured mathematical model to estimate the risk that a single pathogen introduction leads to sustained transmission (the probability of a major outbreak) under long-term demographic transitions, incorporating changes in age-specific contact patterns and behavioural adaptation. Using the Republic of Korea (projected to become the worlds oldest population by 2050) as a case study, we show that population ageing generally reduces the probability of a major outbreak due to older individuals lower contact rates. However, this effect is attenuated for pathogens with increasing susceptibility or infectiousness with age, and if future older cohorts have higher contact levels than at present (e.g. through extended workforce participation in an ageing society). These findings demonstrate that, while outbreak risks are affected by demographic changes, they are further modified by associated behavioural responses, highlighting the importance of accounting for demographic and socio-behavioural context when assessing future infectious disease outbreak risks. Author SummaryIn the early stages of an infectious disease outbreak, the risk that initial cases lead to a substantial outbreak is shaped by a range of factors including the characteristics of the host population. Demographic changes, such as population ageing, are transforming societies worldwide, yet their implications for infectious disease emergence remain unclear. Here, we show that ageing populations reduce the likelihood that imported infections trigger major infectious disease outbreaks due to lower contact rates between individuals of older ages. However, this effect depends on how susceptibility, infectiousness and host behaviour vary with age. For example, increased social and economic activity among future older adults (due to a higher retirement age) could offset the decrease in the outbreak risk. These findings underscore the need to account for demographic and socio-behavioural factors, in addition to biological factors, when assessing future outbreak risks and designing robust public health strategies, particularly in societies undergoing rapid demographic change.

Population ageing increases the importance of cognitive capacity for making decisions about retirement and living independently beyond it. We tested whether post-war educational expansion and working-life social mobility eliminate the association between social class of origin and cognition in early old age using the 1958 National Child Development Study. Two outcomes were analysed at age 62: standard episodic memory (immediate + delayed word recall) and long-term episodic memory, capturing accurate half-century recall of childhood household facts (rooms and people at age 11 validated against mothers responses). Social mobility trajectories derived in prior work were classified into predominantly manual versus non-manual class trajectories. Models were estimated separately for women and men across three specifications: (i) social origin and controls, (ii) adding social mobility, and (iii) adding weighting to address healthy survivor bias. Education was consistently associated with both outcomes. For long-term episodic memory, social origin gradients were clearer than for short-term episodic memory, with men from service/professional origins showing a 13 percentage-point higher probability of accurate half-century recall than men from manual origins. These findings indicate that education expansion and working-life social mobility failed to release the grip of social origin on long-term episodic memory.

Period Life Expectancy (PLE) is a measure of longevity valued for its sensitivity to short and long-term changes. However, it refers to a hypothetical cohort, not to a real population, thereby undervaluing longevity under declining mortality conditions. Other measures such as the Average Cohort Life Expectancy (ACLE) only partially overcome this limitation, still underestimating population longevity. This article introduces a new indicator, the Population Life Expectancy (PoLE), defined as the mean age at death of active cohorts in the studied population. Using a log-linear Poisson model with age-period interaction to project mortality of non-extinct cohorts, we estimated PoLE in Switzerland and Norway over 1876-2024, and compared it to PLE, Cohort Life Expectancy (CLE), and ACLE. PoLE clearly exceeded PLE, increasing from 63.3 to 89.7 for Swiss men (PLE from 37.7 to 82.4), and from 65.4 to 91.3 for Swiss women (PLE from 41.4 to 85.9), revealing a gain of about +50% over 150 years, rather than +100% suggested by PLE. Comparable results were obtained in Norway. PoLE was also higher than CLE until the mid-20th century, when the relation reversed, indicating that life expectancy is now higher for newborns than for those already alive, a tangible sign of human progress.

ObjectivesGrowth Mindset and Grit have been proposed as key psychological resources for resilience and adaptation, yet their manifestation and social distribution in later life remain underexplored. This study examines the structure, distribution, and correlates of Growth Mindset and Grit in older adulthood using proxy indicators in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). MethodsProxy indicators reflecting learning behaviour, personality traits, affect, and beliefs were used to derive three components of Growth Mindset (education-, personality-, and belief-based) and two components of Grit (affective- and personality-based). Multinomial logistic regression models examined associations with age, socioeconomic position, health, and cognitive functioning. ResultsDistinct distributional patterns emerged across components. Education-based Growth Mindset was concentrated in lower categories, whereas personality-, belief-, and affect-based components showed greater variability. Older age was associated with lower Growth Mindset, particularly in education- and belief-based domains, while associations with Grit were more nuanced, including a lower likelihood of low affect-based Grit among older adults. Higher educational attainment, employment, wealth, and better memory performance were associated with more favourable profiles across selected domains. Living alone and limiting longstanding illness were consistently associated with less favourable profiles. ConclusionsGrowth Mindset and Grit appear to function as multidimensional and socially patterned psychological resources in later life. Belief-, personality-, and affect-based components capture meaningful variation even when formal learning declines, underscoring the importance of distinguishing opportunity-constrained indicators from dispositional domains in ageing research.

Recent progress in mathematical kinship modelling has allowed one to predict the probable numbers of kin for a typical population member. In the models, kin may be structured by age and sex, both in static or time-variant demographies. Knowing the probable numbers of kin in different stages - such as parity, health status, or geographic location - however, remains an open challenge in Kinship Demography. Knowing how population structure delimits kin to distinct stages is an advance - for instance, the probability of having one sister at home and one sister away has different social implications from the probability of having two sisters. We present a novel analytical framework, grounded in branching process theory, that provides kin-number distributions jointly structured by age and stage. Using recursive compositions of probability generating functions (PGFs), we derive the joint age, stage, and age x stage kin-number distributions. All marginal distributions over either dimension naturally emerge. Simple extensions of the PGF approach additionally yield: the joint distribution of an individuals own stage and their kins stage; the probable numbers of kin deaths, both in total and by generation number; and the probabilities of being kinless and/or orphaned. We demonstrate the framework through novel results in an application using UK parity-specific fertility and mortality data. HighlightsO_LIA new method calculates probability generating functions for the number of kin structured by age and stage C_LIO_LIThe model allows predicting the probable numbers of kin organised by age and stage C_LIO_LIRecursive nesting of probability generating functions in branching processes is used C_LIO_LIAn application is presented highlighting the novel results C_LI

Socioeconomic inequalities in health and well-being are a major public health concern, particularly in ageing populations. Education is a key determinant shaping multiple aspects of health outcomes. We used cross-sectional data from wave 9 of the German sample (n=4,148) of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) to test whether formal education is associated with well-being in later adulthood, with health literacy, self-rated health, and preventive health behaviours as possible mediators. Our results showed that education was positively associated with greater well-being, but only via indirect pathways. Specifically, self-rated health, health literacy, and fruit and vegetable consumption mediated the relationship between education and well-being accounting for 54.7, 24.7, and 12.6 percent of the total effect, respectively. In addition, there were significant positive correlations between education and health literacy, as well as high-intensity physical activity, daily fruit and vegetable consumption, more preventive health check-ups, and less smoking. In contrast, alcohol consumption was more common among those with higher levels of education. All health behaviours and health literacy were correlated directly or indirectly (i.e., mediated by health) with well-being. These findings highlight the importance of examining indirect pathways linking education to well-being in later life. Interventions aimed at improving health literacy and promoting healthy behaviours may help reduce educational inequalities in quality of life among older adults. About the SHARE Working Paper SeriesThe SHARE Working Paper Series started in 2011 and collects pre-publication versions of papers or book chapters, technical and methodological reports as well as policy papers based on SHARE data. The working papers are not reviewed by the publisher (SHARE-ERIC), layout and editing are not standardized. The publisher takes no responsibility for the scientific content of the paper. Working Papers can be updated - a version number is indicated on the front page. Previous versions are available upon request.

This study investigated retirement adjustment in retired police officers in the UK (N = 289), examining how time since leaving the service moderates the relationship between perceived organisational support and retirement adjustment while accounting for resilience. Results indicated a developmental trend: organisational support remains stable initially but becomes increasingly influential in later life. Using Johnson-Neyman analysis, a threshold of 32.07 years was identified, after which the association reaches statistical significance. These findings suggest an organisational legacy effect; for the older generation, the retrospective perception of being valued by the service acts as a durable psychological resource. This study offers a novel conceptualisation of long-term organisational influence by identifying a temporally delayed legacy effect that extends beyond existing models of retirement adjustment. The study advocate for lifelong wellbeing strategies that extend, recognising that the organisational relationship continues to shape adjustment outcomes decades after the conclusion of active duty.

The basic reproduction number of an infectious disease is known to depend on the structure of contacts between individuals in a population. This relationship has been explored mathematically through two well-known models: one which depends on a matrix of contact rates between different demographic groups, and another which depends on the variability of contact rates over the population. Here we introduce a model that combines and generalises these two approaches. We derive a formula for the basic reproduction number and validate it through comparisons to simulated outbreaks. Applying this method to contact survey data collected in Belgium between 2020 and 2022, we find that our model produces higher estimates of the basic reproduction number and larger relative changes over periods when social contact behaviour was changing during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our analysis suggests some practical considerations when using contact data in models of infectious disease transmission.

Evidence from many countries shows that later life cognitive health is shaped by childhood poverty. However, whether it is associated with neurodegenerative biomarkers measured in population settings remains unclear. Methods We conducted a pooled analysis of 5,473 adults aged [&ge;]50 years from Denmark, Sweden and Germany participating in Wave 6 (2015) of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. Neurodegenerative biomarkers (neurofilament light chain, glial fibrillary acidic protein and phosphorylated tau) were assayed from dried blood spots. Childhood poverty was constructed as a latent variable from retrospective life histories. Weighted Poisson regression models estimated associations adjusting for age, sex, education, marital status and wealth in later life. Marginal predictions along age and across country were derived. Results Childhood poverty was strongly associated with higher NfL concentrations ({beta}=1.66, p<0.001), but not with GFAP or p-tau217. Predicted values indicated substantially elevated NfL among the childhood poor (10.3 pg/mL vs 2.0 pg/mL for the non-poor). Age profiles showed widening disparities: the childhood poor in midlife exhibited higher NfL levels than the oldest old who grew up not poor. No consistent differences were observed for GFAP or p-tau217. Findings were robust and similar across all three countries with different histories and health systems. Conclusions Childhood poverty is associated with markedly elevated levels of NfL in later life, suggesting long-term neuroaxonal injury consistent with life course shaping of brain health. Moreover, the evidence implies substantial acceleration of neurobiological ageing. These findings emphasise the importance of early-life interventions for brain health in ageing populations.

Background Childhood socioeconomic position (SEP) is a key determinant of later life health. Understanding the extent to which adult SEP mediates this association into early old age is important for explaining how health inequalities are propagated across generations and how they might be addressed in later life. To our knowledge, no prospective study has examined whether childhood SEP remains associated with health at the threshold of older age and the extent to which any such association is mediated by adult SEP. Methods We used data from the 1958 British Birth Cohort, a prospective study that has followed participants since birth, drawing on earlier data collected at birth and ages 33 and 55 years and newly collected data from the age 62 sweep. Using interventional causal mediation analyses, we assessed whether adult occupational class, education, housing tenure, and income mediate associations between childhood social class (manual vs non manual) and health at age 62 (self rated health, C reactive protein [CRP], cholesterol ratio, Glycated hemoglobin [HbA1c], and N terminal pro B type natriuretic peptide [NT proBNP]). Findings Associations between childhood SEP and self rated health, CRP, cholesterol ratio, and HbA1c persisted after accounting for adult SEP. Mediation was outcome specific and differed by sex. Among men, occupational class mediated 39% of the association with self rated health (indirect effect RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.86,0.95) and education mediated 27% (0.93, 0.90,0.96). Among women, education mediated 10% (0.95, 0.91,0.98) and housing tenure mediated 6% (0.97, 0.94,0.99). Indirect effects for CRP were smaller, and mediation was minimal for cholesterol ratio, HbA1c, and NT proBNP Interpretation Population level improvements in adult SEP could reduce, but are unlikely to eliminate, later life health inequalities associated with childhood SEP. Reducing these inequalities will require policies that address disadvantage in early life and improve adult financial and employment conditions. Funding UK Economic and Social Research Council

Key points1) Women get to spend more healthy years on retirement, but no clear occupational class gradient could be seen. 2) Retiring early to statutory retirement is associated with more healthy years on retirement. 3) Policies aiming to change the retirement age should consider the equitability and effects on the health of the retirees. ObjectivesLonger lifespans lead to longer time on retirement, despite the efforts to raise the retirement age. Therefore, it is important to study how the retirement years can be spent without diseases. This study examined socioeconomic and sociodemographic differences in healthy years spent on retirement. MethodsWe followed a cohort of retired Finnish municipal employees (N=4231, average follow-up 15.4 years) on national administrative registers for major chronic diseases: cancer, coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dementia, mental disorders, and alcohol-related disorders. Median healthy years on retirement and age at first occurrence of illness (ICD-10 and ATC-based) in each combination of sex, occupational class, and age of retirement were predicted using Royston-Parmar models. Prevalence rates for each diagnostic group were calculated. ResultsMost healthy years on retirement were spent by women having worked in semi-professional jobs who retired at age 60-62 (median predicted healthy years 11.6, 95% CI 10.4-12.7). The least healthy years on retirement were spent by men having worked in routine non-manual jobs who retired after age 62 (median predicted healthy years 6.5, 95% CI 4.4-9.5). Diabetes was slightly more common among lower occupational class women, and dementia among manual working women having retired at age 60-62. DiscussionHealthy years on retirement are not enjoyed equally by women and men and those who retire early or later. Policies aiming to increase the retirement age should consider the effects of these gaps on retirees and the equitability of those effects.

Background: It is well-established that males have a higher mortality risk than females. Immune cells and their function are known to undergo characteristic changes during aging, and immune cells are known to have sex differences. Immune cells and their function have been linked to mortality risk, but no studies have investigated to what degree, if at all, Immune Cell Biomarkers (ICBs) contribute to the known differences in mortality risk by sex. Methods: Using participant data from the Health and Retirement Study (n = 8,822), we applied multivariable linear regressions adjusting for age, cytomegalovirus (CMV) serostatus, sex, and race/ethnicity to identify differences by sex in 48 immune cell biomarker (ICB, e.g. T cells, B cells, Monocytes, etc.) percentages and counts (measured in 2016). We studied how the associations between ICBs and mortality risk differ by sex using stratified Cox Proportional Hazard (CPH) models. We estimated how inclusion of sex explained the relationship between ICBs and all-cause mortality, and conversely, how inclusion of individual and all ICBs combined explain the relationship between sex and all-cause mortality using multivariable modeling approaches. Results: Differences in ICBs by sex range between 2-38% (39/48 statistically significant). 9 ICBs were significantly associated with mortality risk in the entire sample. While different ICBs were significantly associated with mortality risk in the stratified analyses, particularly with respect to monocyte, B cell, and NK cell populations, adjusting for sex modestly influenced the hazard ratios of the ICBs (sex: 8 ICBs, percent change <5.4%). Furthermore, individual and cumulative contributions of ICBs in explaining the differences in mortality risk by sex were not significant.

Introduction: Frailty is a dynamic condition associated with increased vulnerability to adverse health outcomes in older adults. While previous research has primarily focused on deficit-based mental health factors, such as depression and loneliness, less is known about the role of positive mental health determinants, including well-being, resilience and social connectedness, in the development and progression of frailty. Understanding both risk and protective factors is essential for informing public health strategies aimed at promoting healthy ageing. This study aims to examine the longitudinal relationship between mental health and frailty in a nationally sampled population of adults aged 50 years and older in Slovenia. Methods and analysis: This longitudinal observational study will collect data at four time points over a two-year period (January 2026-March 2028). A stratified random sample of community-dwelling adults aged 50-84 years will be drawn from the national population registry, with 5,000 individuals invited to participate in the first wave. Frailty, mental health and a set of social, psychological, and health-related factors will be assessed. Data will be analyzed using a combination of descriptive, inferential and longitudinal statistical methods to examine associations between frailty and mental health over time. Potential explanatory factors will also be explored within the longitudinal framework, and additional analyses will assess the impact of attrition. Ethics and dissemination: The study has been approved by the Ethics and Deontology Committee of the National Institute of Public Health. Participation is voluntary, and informed consent will be obtained from all participants. Data will be anonymized and handled in accordance with applicable data protection regulations. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations and public health reports to inform strategies for promoting healthy ageing.

Suicide is one of the worlds leading public health problems, with more than 720,000 deaths annually. Suicide has traditionally been studied from an individual perspective. However, research has increasingly highlighted the influence of community-level factors on suicide risk. This study aimed to (1) analyse the spatial distribution of suicide mortality at the provincial level in Spain (2018-2022); (2) perform stratified analyses by sex and age group; and (3) compare suicide risk across different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. We used data from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics on 19,381 suicide deaths in 47 peninsular provinces between 2018 and 2022. Covariates included sociodemographic (e.g. aging rate, population density), economic (e.g. unemployment, GDP), and environmental (e.g. temperature) indicators. Bayesian hierarchical spatial Poisson regression models were fitted to estimate suicide risk and identify significant contextual variables. The general spatial model revealed a higher risk of suicide in provinces with lower population density, higher aging rates, and lower health expenditure. Other covariates such as gross domestic product, unemployment, or temperature were associated with specific sex or age groups. Suicide risk was highest in the northwestern provinces and lowest in the central regions. Stratified analyses showed similar patterns across gender and age groups, and between time periods, with some variations in spatial distribution. This study reveals significant spatial heterogeneity in suicide risk across Spanish regions, influenced by socio-demographic, economic, and environmental factors. These findings underline the importance of regionally tailored suicide prevention policies, especially in aging and low-density areas with low health investment. Key MessagesWe examined spatial patterns and socioeconomic and environmental determinants of suicide mortality in 50 Spanish provinces between 2018 and 2022. We found persistent geographical inequalities in suicide rates, with higher mortality in low-density provinces and those with older populations, and protective effects associated with health expenditure. These findings highlight the importance of place-based suicide prevention strategies that consider regional disparities and socioeconomic vulnerabilities.

Intrinsic capacity (IC) summarizes functional health across multiple domains in healthy aging research, yet evidence on whether IC can be measured and tracked before older age remains limited. Using data from the 1958 British birth cohort at ages 50 and 62 (N = 7,804), we examined whether IC could be measured as a coherent, valid and longitudinally comparable construct from midlife to early old age. A second-order model applied to 30 indicators across sensory, cognitive, physical, psychological and vitality domains supported a five-domain IC construct, with scalar invariance across sweeps enabling comparison of scores over time. IC scores showed graded associations with self-rated health and chronic disease burden in the expected directions. Mean IC declined by 6.3 points on a 0-100 scale from age 50 to 62. These findings establish a basis for studying IC trajectories from midlife, before functional decline is usually clinically apparent.

BackgroundFathers adolescent smoking and overweight affect respiratory health in offspring, suggesting that paternal puberty exposures may influence offspring biological ageing through preconception epigenetic mechanisms. MethodsWe analyzed epigenetic age acceleration using four validated epigenetic clocks derived from blood DNA methylation in 892 RHINESSA offspring (mean age 27 years), linked to parental data on smoking and body shapes from RHINE/ECRHS. Linear regression examined parental smoking initiation ([&le;]15 or >15 years) and overweight body shape (childhood/puberty or age 30) in relation to offspring epigenetic age acceleration, adjusting for offspring sex, age and parental socioeconomic status. Sensitivity analyses accounted for offspring smoking and BMI. ResultsPCHorvath ({beta} 1.53; 95% CI 0.02, 2.9), PCGrimAge (1.21; 0.03, 2.1), DunedinPACE (0.04; -0.001, 0.1) and PCPhenoAge (1.92; -0.3, 4.2) were accelerated in daughters of fathers who started smoking [&le;]15 years. Likewise, PCHorvath (2.25; 1.2, 3.3), PCGrimAge (1.36; -0.2, 2.9), DunedinPACE (0.07; 0.01, 0.1) and PCPhenoAge (3.11; 1.8, 4.4) were accelerated in daughters and sons of fathers who had been overweight in childhood and puberty. These results remained largely unchanged after additional adjustments or stratification in sensitivity analyses. No associations were found for maternal smoking or overweight in puberty. ConclusionsEpigenetic ageing is accelerated in offspring of fathers who smoked or were overweight in puberty, independent of offspring lifestyle. These findings suggest that adolescent boys environment and lifestyle may be critical for next-generation health. O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=104 SRC="FIGDIR/small/26352444v1_fig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (26K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1eea189org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1af41f4org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1132932org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@f5ba2c_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG O_FLOATNOFigure 1.C_FLOATNO Graphical abstract Legend to graphical abstract Figure Fathers smoking or overweight during puberty was associated with accelerated epigenetic aging in offspring (n=892), independent of the offsprings own lifestyle. No such pattern was observed for maternal puberty exposures, or when paternal exposures occurred after puberty. Male puberty may be a critical window for next-generation health. C_FIG

Age-related hearing loss is linked to loneliness and poorer cognitive health, but it remains unclear whether loneliness helps explain associations between hearing difficulties and cognitive performance or dementia, and whether these patterns reflect causal pathways or shared underlying liability. In this preregistered study, we triangulated analyses across multiple data sources spanning approximately 18 years of observational data with 8 sources of molecular genetic information to examine whether loneliness helps explain the association between hearing difficulty and cognitive performance, Alzheimers disease dementia, and all-cause dementia, and whether hearing-aid use may buffer this association. In longitudinal parallel-process latent growth curve models (N = 10,375) using nine waves of longitudinal data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), poorer hearing was associated with greater loneliness, and greater loneliness was associated with poorer cognitive performance, consistent with partial mediation. In contrast, worsening hearing over time was not clearly associated with increasing loneliness over time. Cumulative hearing-aid use did not appear to alter long-term loneliness trajectories, although current hearing-aid use weakened the concurrent association between poorer hearing and greater loneliness. In genetic analyses, we found little evidence that hearing phenotypes or loneliness had clear total or indirect effects on Alzheimers disease dementia or all-cause dementia. Analyses accounting for shared genetic liability with neuroticism provided some evidence linking loneliness with poorer cognitive performance, and colocalization analyses further suggested shared genetic architecture across hearing, loneliness, cognition, and neuroticism-related traits. Overall, the findings support a robust cross-domain association between poorer hearing, greater loneliness, and poorer cognitive performance, while suggesting that long-term change and genetic evidence are more consistent with shared liability than with a single causal pathway.

The Asian population in Los Angeles is among the largest and most heterogeneous in the U.S. This is true culturally and health-wise. Older Asians have differing risks for cardiovascular and cardiometabolic disease, depending on their ethnicity, health literacy, and lifestyle choices. This pilot examines several of these factors in a small but diverse group of older Asian adults who attended community health events from 2024-2025. Self-reported and biometric data were collected at five such events hosted by the Asian Pacific Health Corps at UCLA. The pilot generated health literacy and lifestyle (HLL) scores for all participating attendees and explored how they relate to their socio-demographics, healthcare habits, and predictions of their own health data. Overall, there were significantly more females than males with higher HLL scores (p = 0.027). College education (p = 0.028) and "normal" ranges for biometric data (e.g., blood pressure, BMI, blood glucose, cholesterol) were related to higher median HLL scores. With a few exceptions, fewer than 50% accurately predicted their biometric numbers regardless of HLL scores, suggesting a disconnect between perception and reality, and that better provider-patient communication may help foster greater patient understanding about their chronic conditions. These HLL score distributions indicate that educational attainment, better awareness of one's health, and high health literacy are individual factors that may influence older Asians' understanding and potential approach to managing their health conditions.

BackgroundPoor physical function has been associated with higher cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, the association between physical function and atrial fibrillation (AF) remains understudied. The comprehensive investigation of the association between physical function and incident AF risk could highlight a novel target for AF prevention. MethodsA total of 4,803 participants without diagnosed AF from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study cohort with physical function assessed in 2011-2013 were studied. Physical function was measured using Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), 4-meter walk time, and grip strength. Hospital discharge codes and death certificates were used to ascertain incident AF through 2022, and through 2020 for participants from Jackson. Cox regression was used to assess the association between physical function and incident AF risk, adjusting for multiple covariates. Z-score transformations were performed to identify the physical function measure most strongly associated with incident AF risk, and SPPB component analysis was performed to identify the most influential SPPB component. ResultsMean age of the study participants was 75.1 {+/-} 5.0 years, with 41.2% being male participants and 22.2% being black participants. During a median follow-up of 9.2 years, there were 809 incident AF events. SPPB (HR: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.90-0.96, per 1-point increase) and grip strength (HR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.78-0.96, per 10kg increase) were inversely associated with incident AF risk, while 4-meter walk time (HR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.03-1.13, per 1-second increase) was positively associated with incident AF risk. SPPB had the strongest association with incident AF risk. Within SPPB, only the chair stand component was significantly associated with incident AF risk. ConclusionsThe findings suggest that better physical function is associated with reduced incident AF risk, with higher SPPB having the strongest association. Given the modifiable nature of physical function, these findings highlight a potential novel target for AF prevention in aging populations. What is KnownO_LIPhysical function has been associated with cardiovascular diseases, however, the relationship between physical function and incident atrial fibrillation (AF) remains understudied. C_LI What the Study AddsO_LIThis study found that better Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), 4-meter walk time, and grip strength were all independently associated with reduced risk of incident AF. C_LIO_LIIn this study, higher SPPB was most strongly associated with reduced risk of incident AF, implying the importance of multi-domain measures of physical function. C_LIO_LIThis study found that within SPPB, higher chair stand component score was the only component significantly associated with reduced risk of incident AF, highlighting the critical role of muscle strength in the association between physical function and risk of incident AF. C_LIO_LIThe results suggest that physical function may be a novel modifiable target for AF prevention. C_LI